The Election Prediction Project

Cross-posted to the BlogsCanada election blog.

I don’t think anyone’s referenced this before, so here’s an interesting site that promises to ‘form government ahead of the election’:

Election Prediction Project started as part of the honour thesis research of Milton Chan, founder of the initiative. It attempted to predict the outcome of the 1999 Ontario Provincial Election, with moderate success. The project was initially hosted by the Political Science Department of University of Waterloo. Since then, Milton has finished his schooling in University of Waterloo, and the Project has grown from an individual’s research work to a group effort.

Right now they’re calling a minority Liberal government (though there are many ridings that are currently ‘too close to call’). They claim to have predicted the last federal election with 92.3% accuracy, and are consistently above 90% for sizable provincial elections. I can’t be bothered to wade through their methodology, but it’s a site worth keeping an eye on in the coming weeks.